ARTICLE
TO: Hospital Emergency Management Contacts FROM: John Wilgis, Vice President of Member and Corporate Services, FHA SUBJECT: Tropical Storm Elsa Update DATE: 9:00 a.m., July 5, 2021 New information in red. LOCATION: 21.4N 80.7W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 miles per hour PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW at 14 miles per hour MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 millibars (29.71 inches) Watches and Warnings A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortuga and the west coast of Florida from Flamingo to Englewood. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef, the Florida Bay and the west coast of Florida from Englewood northward to the Aucilla River. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula, coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. Discussion At 8:00 a.m., ET, the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 21.4 north, longitude 80.7 west. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 14 miles per hour and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba later today and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 miles per hour with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before Elsa moves over Cuba later today, followed by some weakening while the center moves over land. Slight restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 1006 millibars (29.71 inches). Hazards Affecting Land WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands this morning, and in the upper Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the west coast of Florida beginning Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide - Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay - 2 to 4 feet Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL 1 to 3 feet Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortuga including Florida Bay - 1 to 2 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. RAINFALL: Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are expected across Florida and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to 5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight into Tuesday. SURF: Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward along the west coast of Florida tonight and Tuesday. Important Information Executive Order 21-150 declaring a state of emergency in Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Pasco, Pinellas, and Sarasota Counties. 5-day Rainfall Forecast Tropical Storm Elsa Models Tropical Storm Force Wind Arrival Times Key Messages More information is available from the National Hurricane Center. Please monitor conditions from your local weather service for potential impacts to your community. [[UNSUBSCRIBELINK]] from all FHA e-communications. 306 East College Avenue | Tallahassee, FL 32301 | Website
[[UNSUBSCRIBELINK]] from all FHA e-communications. 306 East College Avenue | Tallahassee, FL 32301 | Website