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TO: Hospital Emergency Management Contacts FROM: John Wilgis, Vice President of Member and Corporate Services, FHA SUBJECT: Tropical Storm / Hurricane Elsa Update DATE: 2:00 p.m., July 6, 2021 New information in red. LOCATION: 25.4N 83.0W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 70 miles per hour PRESENT MOVEMENT: North at 9 miles per hour MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 millibars (29.53 inches) Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning has been issued along the west coast of Florida from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River including Tampa Bay. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas, the west coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key, and the west coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for west of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula, coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. Discussion At 2:00 p.m., ET, the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 25.4 north, longitude 83.0 west. Elsa is moving toward the north near 9 miles per hour and a generally northward motion is expected today and tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight. Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast on Wednesday and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 miles per hour with higher gusts and Elsa is forecast to become a hurricane before making landfall. Weakening is forecast to begin after Elsa moves inland by late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1000 millibars (29.53 inches). Hazards Affecting Land WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight and early Wednesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide - Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay - 3 to 5 feet Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor - 2 to 4 feet Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River - 2 to 4 feet Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL - 1 to 3 feet Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas - 1 to 2 feet Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass - 1 to 2 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week: Across the Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula, 3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across the rest of Florida, 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Important Information The Agency for Health Care Administration Activates the Emergency Status System and expands reporting area to include: Alachua, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, Columbia, Dixie, Franklin, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Hernando, Hillsborough, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lake, Lee, Leon, Levy, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Monroe, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor and Wakulla Counties. More information is available from the National Hurricane Center. Please monitor conditions from your local weather service for potential impacts to your community. [[UNSUBSCRIBELINK]] from all FHA e-communications. 306 East College Avenue | Tallahassee, FL 32301 | Website
[[UNSUBSCRIBELINK]] from all FHA e-communications. 306 East College Avenue | Tallahassee, FL 32301 | Website