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TO: Hospital Emergency Management Contacts FROM: John Wilgis, Vice President of Member and Corporate Services, FHA SUBJECT: Tropical Storm Elsa Update DATE: July 4, 2021 New information in red. LOCATION: 18.3N 76.2W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 miles per hour PRESENT MOVEMENT: West-northwest at 13 miles per hour MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1007 millibars (29.74 inches) Watches and Warnings A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required this morning. Discussion At 8:00 a.m., ET, the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 18.3 north, longitude 76.2 west. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 miles per hour. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move away from the southern portion of Haiti during the next couple of hours and continue to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba today, and approach central Cuba tonight. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 miles per hour with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur tonight and Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf of Mexico some slight restrengthening is possible. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars (29.74 inches). There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts beginning late Monday in the Florida Keys, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of the Florida Keys. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge and rainfall impacts along the Florida Peninsula Monday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. However, uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with Cuba. Hazards Affecting Land Wind: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands by tonight, in western Cuba by early Monday, and the Florida Keys by late Monday. Storm Surge: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide - Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas - 1 to 2 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Rainfall: Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Surf: Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida early next week. Other Information Key Messages Tropical Storm Force Wind Arrival Times 5-Day Rainfall Estimates Forecast Models More information is available from the National Hurricane Center. Please monitor conditions from your local weather service for potential impacts to your community. [[UNSUBSCRIBELINK]] from all FHA e-communications. 306 East College Avenue | Tallahassee, FL 32301 | Website
More information is available from the National Hurricane Center. Please monitor conditions from your local weather service for potential impacts to your community.