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TO: All Hospital Emergency Management Contacts FROM: John Wilgis, Vice President of Member and Corporate Services SUBJECT: Tropical Weather Update DATE: August 16, 2021 New information in red. Tropical Storm Fred Location: 28.6N 85.8W Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 miles per hour Present Movement: North at 9 miles per hour Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (29.59 Inches) Watches and Warnings A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for coast of the Florida Panhandle from Indian Pass to Yankeetown. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected some-where within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to Navarre. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Alabama to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required for portions of the Tropical Storm Watch area later this morning. Discussion At 8:00 a.m., ET, the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 28.6 north, longitude 85.8 west. Fred is moving toward the north near 9 miles per hour and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through today. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico today and make landfall in the Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 miles per hour with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 millibars (29.59 inches). Hazards Affecting Land Rainfall: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through today - Southern and Central Florida, 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected. Through Tuesday - The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Storm Surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide - Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL - 3-5 feet Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL - 2-4 feet AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay - 1-3 feet Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL - 1-3 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances. Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later this morning. Surf: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Tornadoes: A tornado or two will be possible early this morning over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the late morning and into the afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward into southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama. Tropical Storm Grace Location: 17.4N 70.9W Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 miles per hour Present Movement: West at 15 miles per hour Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 millibars (29.77 Inches) Discussion At 8:00 a.m., ET, the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.4 north, longitude 70.9 west. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 miles per hour. A west to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will pass near the southern coast of Hispaniola today and tonight, and then between Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 miles per hour with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Slow strengthening is expected to begin by Tuesday. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1008 millibars (29.77 inches). More information is available from the National Hurricane Center. Please monitor conditions from your local weather service for potential impacts to your community. [[UNSUBSCRIBELINK]] from all FHA e-communications. 306 East College Avenue | Tallahassee, FL 32301 | Website
At 8:00 a.m., ET, the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 28.6 north, longitude 85.8 west. Fred is moving toward the north near 9 miles per hour and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through today. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico today and make landfall in the Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 miles per hour with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 millibars (29.59 inches). Hazards Affecting Land
[[UNSUBSCRIBELINK]] from all FHA e-communications. 306 East College Avenue | Tallahassee, FL 32301 | Website